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A Market in Transition?

Chart of the Week for October 15-21, 1999

Bond and stock markets have grown extremely volatile in the past several weeks and have left many investors edgy, especially now that the S&P 500 Index has retreated more than 7% in less than two months.

As the market struggles with more evidence of tightness in the labor market and strong consumer demand, market participants have started to factor in the possibility of a third Fed tightening in November. As a result, the 30-year Treasury bond yield is now at a two-year high. Rising bond yields are typically negative for the stock market.

Fear of rising prices is beginning to take a toll on the market. Prices for oil, gold, and certain other commodities are moving up. Additionally, emotion has become a factor. More analysts are questioning valuation levels, the appropriateness of the equity risk premium (which has fallen an estimated 80% during the decade) and the prospects for future broad advances.

This illustration was compiled by information from outside sources. These companies are not affiliated with ICMA-RC. This information is being provided for educational purposes and is not intended to be construed as or relied upon as investment advice. ICMA-RC does not offer specific tax or legal advice. Individuals are advised to consider any new investment strategies carefully prior to implementing.

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The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data illustrated. For performance data current to the most recent month end, contact ICMA-RC Services, LLC by calling 800-669-7400 or by writing to 777 North Capitol Street, NE, Washington, DC 20002-4240. Para asistencia en Español llame al 800-669-8216. Performance data current to the most recent quarter end is available by visiting www.icmarc.org.

 
October 15, 1999